新冠肺炎对气候因素响应研究中的模型应用比较
叶萃玉;王昊宁;吕佳宁;黄利亚;曾祥伟;王晓龙;
摘要(Abstract)：
新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情正在全球蔓延,严重威胁着人类及动物的生命健康。目前还没有特效药物及商品化的疫苗,故加强对新型冠状病毒的非生理性影响因素的研究具有重要意义。本文就国内外有关新冠肺炎对气候因素响应研究中应用的模型作了比较,并对造成国内外相关研究差异性的原因进行分析,以期为未来进行更完善的研究提供参考。
关键词(KeyWords)： 新冠肺炎;气象因素;模型
基金项目(Foundation): 教育部中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(新冠肺炎疫情专项)(2572020DY01)
作者(Author): 叶萃玉;王昊宁;吕佳宁;黄利亚;曾祥伟;王晓龙;
Email:
DOI: 10.13799/j.cnki.mdjyxyxb.2020.06.040
参考文献(References)：
- [1] WHO.Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19) Situation Report-184.2020[Z].https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation reports/20200722-covid-19-sitrep-184.pdf?sfvrsn=7680210a_2.
- [2] 孙立明,阮朝良,王洪,等.法定报告传染病的气象流行病学分析与探讨[J].医学综述,2013,19(21):3944-3946.
- [3] 李俊霞,李磊,果丽平.传染病与气象因素的关系研究[J].医学动物防制,2014,30(4):402-404,408.
- [4] 陈正洪,叶殿秀,杨宏青,等.中国各地SARS与气象因子的关系[J].气象,2004,(2):42-45.
- [5] XU Z,HU W,WILLIAMS G,et al.Air pollution,temperature and pediatric influenza in Brisbane,Australia[J].Environment international,2013,59(2):384-388.
- [6] 高帆,李长贵,梁争论,等.我国新型冠状病毒疫苗研发进展及思考[J].中国药事,2020,34(4):375-380.
- [7] 苏千叶.线性回归模型参数估计及异常点检测方法的改进[D].山东大学,2015.
- [8] YAO Y,PAN J H,LIU Z X,et al.No association of COVID-19 transmission with temperature or UV radiation in Chinese cities[J].The European respiratory journal,2020,55(5):58-60.
- [9] AULER A C,CASSARO F M,DA SILVA V O,et al.Evidence that high temperatures and intermediate relative humidity might favor the spread of COVID-19 in tropical climate:A case study for the most affected Brazilian cities[J].Science of the Total Environment,2020,72(9):139090.
- [10] 黄介武.线性与广义线性模型中参数估计的一些研究[D].重庆大学,2014.
- [11] LIU J,ZHOU J,YAO J,et al.Impact of meteorological factors on the COVID-19 transmission:A multi-city study in China[J].Science of the Total Environment,2020,72(6):138513.
- [12] UJIIE M,TSUZUKI S,OHMAGARI N.Effect of temperature on theinfectivity of COVID-19[J].International Journal of Infectious Diseases,2020,95(5):301-303.
- [13] 孙晗梅.线性和广义线性混合模型的混合效应预测与应用[D].山东大学,2018.
- [14] FICETOLA G F,RUBOLINI D.Climate affects global patterns of COVID-19 early outbreak dynamics[EB/OL].(2020-03-23)[2020-07-22].https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.23.20040501.
- [15] JAHANGIRI M,JAHANGIRI M,NAJAFGHOLIPOUR M.The sensitivity and specificity analyses of ambient temperature and population size on the transmission rate of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in different provinces of Iran[J].Science of the Total Environment,2020,72(8):138872.
- [16] LUMLEY T.Generalized estimating equations for ordinal data:a note on working correlation structures[J].Biometrics,1996,52(1):354-361.
- [17] MCCULLAGH P,NELDER J A.Generalized linear models[J].European Journal of Operational Resarch,1989,16(3):285-292.
- [18] WANG M,JIANG A,GONG L,et al.Temperature Significantly Change COVID-19 Transmission in 429 cities[EB/OL].(2020-02-22)[2020-07-22].https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.22.20025791.
- [19] DAI L,ZANOBETTI A,KOUTRAKIS P,et al.Associations of fine particulate matter species with mortality in the United States:a multicity time-series analysis[J].Environmental Health Perspectives,2014,122(8):837-842.
- [20] CROUSE D L,PETERS P A,HYSTAD P,et al.Ambient PM2.5,O3 and NO2 Exposures and Associations with Mortality over 16 Years of Follow-Up in the Canadian Census Health and Environment Cohort (CanCHEC)[J].Environmental Health Perspectives,2015,123(11):1180-1186.
- [21] 刘怡.基于广义可加混合模型的CKC研究[D].东北财经大学,2018.
- [22] GUPTA A,BANERJEE S,DAS S.Significance of geographical factors to the COVID-19 outbreak in India[EB/OL].(2020-06-17)[2020-07-22],https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-020-00838-840.
- [23] QI H,XIAO S,SHI R,et al.COVID-19 transmission in Mainland China is associated with temperature and humidity:A time-series analysis[J].Science of the Total Environment,2020,72(8):138778.
- [24] BRIZ R á,SERRANO A á.A spatio-temporal analysis for exploring the effect of temperature on COVID-19 early evolution in Spain[J].Science of the Total Environment,2020,72(8):138811.
- [25] PRATA D N,RODRIGUES W,BERMEJO P H.Temperature significantly changes COVID-19 transmission in (sub)tropical cities of Brazil[J].The Science of the Total Environment,2020,72(9):138862.
- [26] WU Y,JING W,LIU J,et al.Effects of temperature and humidity on the daily new cases and new deaths of COVID-19 in 166 countries[J].Science of the Total Environment,2020,72(9):139051.
- [27] ZIGLER C M,CHOIRAT C,DOMINICI F.Impact of National Ambient Air Quality Standards Nonattainment Designations on Particulate Pollution and Health[J].Epidemiology(Cambridge,Mass),2018,29(2):165-174.
- [28] SHI P,DONG Y,YAN H,et al.Impact of temperature on the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China[J].Science of the Total Environment,2020,72(8):138890.